Best time to post : why it’s a lot harder to predict than it seems + Nitro announcement

Stephane Allard
Co-founder & CEO at Wisemetrics - Stephane is a serial entrepreneur who has been launching internet-related companies since 2001, after a fruitful experience at IBM as web marketing manager. His latest venture was a pioneering social media agency, sold in 2006, which advised Fortune 100 companies.

We’ve received a lot of requests to add “Best day/hour to post” in our Facebook analytics solution.
This could have been easy to integrate if we had decided to follow our predecessors’ paths : take your previous posts, do some basic math like average/median score and there you have the best hours and best days to post.



Results are not accurate if you do it this way.  And yet it seems to be a pretty intuitive approach to do the prediction.

Why is it not statistically accurate ?

Here is a quick example.

Based on this approach, the following post should have tremendous success if posted at the right time and hour.

Hey! Isn’t it suppose to work like a charm ? I’ve posted it at the right time and hour!

As you can see, the problem with this approach is that it only takes into account the hour and day as factors of success.

Let’s say that the tool recommends you to post on Friday at 4pm.

What if :

Enough said. You can’t resume the success of a post to timing only as this success is based on a lot of different factors.
We’ve identified more than 60… and hour and day are only two of them!

There are factors related to the post itself (type, topic, length of message…) or factors related to the context (success of previous posts, competition in the news feed, publication frequency…).


So what’s the solution?

Posting the same message every day, every half-hour for two non-consecutive months in order to isolate the factors other than hour and day that affected your results.

We know it’s quite impossible (but if you try, we’d like to know the results!) so we’ve devised a unique algorithm that identify the posts which have been affected by the timing more than the other factors.


Sneak Peek – Introducing Wisemetrics Nitro

This algorithm is a core part of our brand new predictive posting technology some of our clients are currently beta-testing.

This technology, named Nitro will automatically optimize your posting on Facebook.

Interested? Drop us a line at

Access your free social analytics

Subscribe to the Newsletter and feel the Rocket Power!

Go to Blog

Comment here !



  1. REPORT: Facebook Page Posts Have Shorter Shelf Lives Than Previously Reported ,Vancouver Island, Canada -

    […] The best thing to do is to thoroughly analyze pages’ posts histories, as well as those of peers and competitors, looking at dozens factors at a time, and predict the optimal timing, just for that specific page (Good news: It can be done through machine learning). […]

  2. Social Media Monitoring leicht gemacht: vom LikeAlyzer! « Social Media Knigge Social Media Knigge -

    […] was er wie erreichen möchte, und ob die Tipps des LikeAlyzers den eigenen Zielen dienen. Wie hier erklärt wird, ist außerdem die Bestimmung der besten Postingzeiten und -typen auf Basis der […]