Benjamin Rey
Co-founder & Chief Scientist at Wisemetrics : with a background in mathematics & statistics, Benjamin has been crunching data and developing statistical algorithms for 15 years, mostly for e-marketing optimization (Principal Research engineer at Yahoo! labs, and now Wisemetrics)

Data Science blog post series

At Wiselytics, we have been gathering a huge amount of social media data for over a year and thought it was time to share some insights we are getting from it. This post is part of a Data Science short blog posts series we hope you will find interesting.

We know it’s short

Facebook posts’ lifetime is known to be very short. Several studies have found that most engagement with a post happens within the first few hours (see for instance nice studies done by Edgerank Checker’s, Optim.al, Sotrender).

Having our hands on the right data, we’ve decided to take a peek at this lifetime thing. And yes, we found, just like others, that 75% of engagement occurs within the first 5 hours. But we’ve also looked at Impressions, and Reach.

How much shorter can it get?

On the graph below, we present median Engagement, Impression and Reach, over time with a confidence interval of +/-5% (to show variance among posts)

 

Impressions are even shorter than Engagement, with only 2 Hrs 30 min to reach 75% of its max, and Reach is even worse: 75% of your audience sees your message in less than 2 Hrs!

Can it get worse? Well if you care most about your fans, it takes only 1 Hr 50 mins for a post Reach to get to 75% of it’s potential (not shown on this graph).

There is quite a bit of variance between posts, but for short period of time all posts show the same behavior, and it takes a mere 30 minutes for a post to get 50% of its global Reach.

Modeling

The idea behind looking at posts’ progress over time is to be able to predict, as soon as possible, if a post will fail or beat all expectations to adjust community management efforts (e.g.: rushing in order to publish a new post or waiting a bit more).

In terms of modeling, the log-log shape of posts progress over time is a nice discovery. However even though all posts do seem to share a common shape, variance is very large (as we could see with the large tubes from our initial graph). Using a linear log-log fitting, we thus couldn’t map each post into a “as-usual” or “killer-post” category just by looking at performance from the very first few minutes of a post.

Going a step further, through a machine-learning approach based on derivatives of the curve (speed of increase) to predict end-point, we’re finally getting OK results, but it’s still not quite convincing. It needs to be coupled with models predicting a post performance even before it is published. But that’s another story.

Takeaways

Many brands care for fans’ Reach, sometimes more than for Engagement. Optimizing the timing of your post is thus mandatory.

Facebook’s new Insights allows one to see when his fans are on Facebook. That’s a start, but as pointed here, it won’t help you compete with other posts.

The best thing to do is to thoroughly analyse your posts history, as well as your peers & competitors, looking at dozens factors at a time, and predict the optimal timing, just for you (good news, it can be done through machine learning).

Next Data Science blog post coming in a few weeks

“Paid posts: will the thousands of likes & comments you get boost your future unpaid posts?”

 

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62 Comments

  1. The most important Social Media- and Marketing-Studies from 2013 -

    […] Facebook posts’ lifetime.. even shorter than you thought! – Only […]

  2. allfacebook.de | Facebook-Seiten: Die Halbwertszeit eines Statusupdates liegt bei 30 Minuten und 75 % der Reichweite wird in weniger als 2 Stunden erreicht -

    […] Gemessen wurden die Statistiken von Wisemetrics, die auch noch weitere interessante Details veröffentlichen. Die Interaktionsrate hängt natürlich direkt an der Reichweite des Posts. Dementsprechend erfolgen die meisten Likes, Shares und Comments innerhalb von 90 Minuten, genauer gesagt 50 % der Interaktionen entstehen in diesem Zeithorizont. Weitere fünf Stunden später werden dann 75 % aller Interaktionen erzeugt. […]

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  11. The Shelf Life of Your Facebook Posts Is Shorter Than You Thought [Data] ,Vancouver Island, Canada -

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  12. How Long Will Your Post Last? | The North Blog -

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  27. Qual é a “expectativa de vida” de um post no Facebook? | Blog PR Newswire -

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  28. 4 Ways To Extend The Life Of A Facebook Update – Convert With Content -

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  29. Anfíbia: Agência Digital » Pesquisa aponta que posts no Facebook têm “validade” de 12 horas para engajamento -

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  30. Post no Facebook leva menos de 2 horas para alcançar 75% de seu potencial | WEE Social Media -

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  32. Fighting Over Frequency: How Often Newsrooms Should Post to Facebook | Social Media Strategy for the Journalism Business by Kim Wilson -

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  36. Estudo revela que post no Facebook tem vide útil de 12 horas | Grupo Fiobranco de Comunicação -

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  54. 26 Ways to Engage Your Fans on Facebook | Social Media Examiner -

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  57. 8 Simple Ways to Start Social Media Marketing Right Now | -

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