Benjamin Rey
Co-founder & Chief Scientist at Wisemetrics : with a background in mathematics & statistics, Benjamin has been crunching data and developing statistical algorithms for 15 years, mostly for e-marketing optimization (Principal Research engineer at Yahoo! labs, and now Wisemetrics)

Facebook’s pages reach have been going down… a lot. This it not news and we wanted to have a clear view about how much worse things got.

In this blog post, we’re confirming the hard truth (with some hope). And we’re also trying to answer this question: what if I were to post twice more, would I double my reach? Does 1% reach on 2 posts give me 2% reach or do I still get 1%?

Facebook Page reach decrease is a stepwise process

We took a sample of 10K pages from brands of all sizes. We looked at their 7-days page organic reach for the past 8 months. The metric we focused on is fan reach. We aggregated pages by their number of fans: aggregating together all pages with around 1000 fans vs pages with 10K fans …

And here are our findings:

Page 7-days reach over time per page size     

Page reach over time

 

As was expected we find that pages reach is going down severely. More precisely, it’s a two steps drop. Things started getting worse mid August 2013. It then plateaued, but worsen further more at the end of November. There’s hope! it seems to plateau again, it hasn’t declined since early January. We hope there won’t be more steps!

FB reach drop happened in 2 steps : mid August then mid November. It’s now on a plateau tweet

Interestingly, the larger the page, the harsher the drop: pages with more than 1M fans have seen a 40% drop when pages with 1K fans dropped by ‘only’ 20%.

In less than a year, FB pages with >1M fans have seen their reach drop by 40% tweet

A trick to increase your posts’ reach

You might have noticed that we’re talking about 10-30% reach, when one is more accustomed to 1-10%. The difference is that we’re looking at page reach rather than post reach. Indeed if a page posts twice in a week, each post might have 10% fan reach, but the two combined could get up to 20% or… 10% if the fans reached are exactly the same.

To figure out if 1+1=1 or if 1+1=2 in Facebook World, we compared page’s 7-days page reach to the sum of posts’ reach from these 7 days. We differentiate pages by their usual post reach : pages with usually 2.5% reach per post, vs 5%, vs… The rationale being that if a page reaches many fans per post, there’s a higher chance that the fans will overlap.

And here are the findings:

Incremental fan reach by number or post         

Facebook post frequency

Here is how you should read this graph. For instance,  for a page with a usual 2.5% post fan reach (green lines), 70% of the 2nd post reach will be on fans who haven’t seen the first. For its 6th post, it’s 50% of its audience that hasn’t seen any of the 4 previous posts. And for the 15th post, still 35% of fans reached would be ‘new’ fans.

A page with a usual post reach of 20%, the 6th post brings in only 25% new fans. But these pages are the lucky ones who don’t need much of repetition anyways.

Now we can answer Facebook Reach Theorem: 1+1 >> 1

If your FB post has a low fan reach, you could repeat it: it will overlap 1st publication by only 30% tweet

This is exciting, as it means that, not only pages can repeat their message several times and increase substantially their reach, but also that we can control how many fans will see the repeated posts.

This is what we do with Wiselytics “auto-flow”: if you wish to reach a maximum audience, we will automatically schedule repetitions of your message on your Facebook page (and on Twitter too), and still control how much repetition your fans will experience.

please check out our beta

Wiselytics

 

wis.ms link for this blog post: http://wis.ms/Gbro

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10 Comments

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    […] produce research on Facebook reach Wisemetrics has produced an article about the extent of the decrease in post reach on Facebook. They display that it has been a two-step process, with dips in both August and November, followed […]

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    […] Facebook Page Reach : there’s hope and here is a trick to increase your posts’ reach, blog.wisemetrics.com […]

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    […] Facebook Page Reach : there’s hope and here is a trick to increase your posts’ reach, blog.wisemetrics.com […]

  4. Bo The -

    What’s about international pages? Do you see a decrease of organic reach when local pages of one brand are gathered to one international page? Do you see a higher organic reach for the smaller countries within a page?

  5. Marketing Day: March 31, 2014 | CABizNews.com -

    […] Facebook Page Reach : there’s hope and here is a trick to increase your posts’ reach, blog.wisemetrics.com […]

  6. Benjamin Rey -

    Hi Bo,
    We haven’t looked precisely at international pages but this is a good suggestion for our next study. Splitting by country could be a good way to increase global reach, but as you mention we need to double check if there is no counter effects.

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    […] Facebook's pages reach has been going down… a lot. This it not news and we wanted to have a clear view about how much worse things got. In this blog post, we're confirming the hard truth (with some hope).  […]